Blog: Dry & Chilly Today. Watching The Weekend Closely!

Sunday's Forecast

The weather won’t be too bad today, but I wish the temperatures would warm up a bit.  We started this morning in the 20s and 30s.  It’s not unheard of to have 20s and 30s for low temperatures in March, but it is odd to have a long stretch of them.  We flipped from a very warm February to a very chilly March….so far.   Luckily we have a lot of sunshine today. So we will warm up a bit compared to yesterday.  High pressure has built into the region.   There is still an area of low pressure in the northeast states.

Regional Weather Map

This is causing more problems in the northeast with more accumulating snow.  Lately they just can’t catch a break.  Meanwhile we will be dry today.  The breeze is up a bit out of the west.  It will run at 5-15mph with gusts up to 20mph.  (Not too bad).  High temps will aim for the low 50s, but there will probably be some upper 40s north and east of the metro.  It will be pretty nice out if you can get out of the breeze.

By tonight we’ll have increasing clouds.  A weak disturbance will move in from the west by early tomorrow morning.  This will produce a small area of a wintry mix.

Future Trak (Saturday Morning)

Most of the surface temperatures will be above freezing, but it might not be by much.  We’ll have some scattered rain showers with sleet mixing in.  There may be some light snow also trying to mix in as well.  This will likely melt on contacct, but it could try and stick to a few decks or cars.  This will continue into the later morning.  It will become mostly light rain showers by then.  Then we’ll dry out during the afternoon with a mix of sun and clouds.  High temps will be in the 50s.  Winds will be variable at 5-10mph.  Other than the possible mix in the morning, Saturday will be pretty quiet.

Saturday’s Forecast

By Sunday the next system will step up to bat.  It will form over towards Charlotte.  It will likely move east and strengthen slightly through the day.

Sunday’s Forecast

We’ll have easterly/northeasterly winds ahead of the system.  It may be out of the east/southeast if the low tracks a little slower.  Future Trak as a northeast wind for now.

Wind forecast (Sunday Afternoon)

The wind will increase by the evening.  I think we are looking at 10-20mph with some gusts up to 30mph near the shore. I think the model is a little too light at that time.  (It was higher in an earlier run).

Wind Forecast (Sunday Evening)

The wind will turn more northerly as the system heads offshore on Monday.  We could get some brief tidal flooding on Monday.  I think it would just be minor.  Luckily this system will head out faster than last weekend’s system.

Rain showers are forecast to move in on Sunday.  They will probably move in during the afternoon, but the specific time has been shifting a bit.  Rain will continue Sunday night into Monday….Probably!

I say probably because the models are actually pretty split as to what the low will do Sunday night into Monday.  The European model and the NAM have the low pretty much shooting due east out to sea.  They have it moving at a pretty fast pace.  This would be great news for the northeast states as they would be spared the snow and much of the wind.  We would have some strong northerly winds and higher tides, but they would be brief.  On the other hand, the GFS model turns the low to the northeast after moving offshore, and runs it just off the northeast coast.  It then becomes another nor’easter for the northeast states.  Rain, wind, snow, tidal flooding.  The difference in the models is actually pretty large.  They will probably come together by later today.  So stay tuned for updates.  Either way behind the system we’ll have chilly/dry conditions for most of next week.  I think we’ll finally warm up a little towards next weekend.  We’ll see!  Have a good weekend!

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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