Blog: Quick Update To The Forecast

Surface Map Forecast

I did the weather blog earlier this morning.  However, things have changed enough that I thought I would do a quick update.  Some of the models have had a decent amount of snow in the forecast for Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  A couple of models that I use had much lower amounts.  Since earlier this morning some of those models have come into better agreement with the broader models.  Take Future Trak for instance.  Earlier it had very little snow, and at one point it even took out the snow (I didn’t believe that.  So I reverted it back an update).  Anyway, now it has caught on to the increasing moisture trend.  Here is its latest forecast:

Future Trak Snow Forecast

The NAM has the low getting stronger offshore snow.  So it’s forecast also increased.  Remember it doesn’t always handle offshore systems too well.  The GFS seems pretty steady.   My version of the GFS also increased a little.

GFS Snow Forecast

A higher resolution version of the GFS has a little more.  The European model (at least the higher resolution) has been calling for a few inches in Hampton Roads since last night.  So with the latest trends, I increased the snow forecast.

Snow Forecast Map

 

Snow Forecast Map

I still think the mix will limit the amount of snow from southern Virginia Beach down to the Outer Banks, but I may have to increase that number.  There still looks like a sharp cutoff as you go farther inland.  The storm will be pretty far offshore after all.  There is still some time for things to change.  Will the band of heavy snow Thursday morning last for a long time?  Or… will the low move faster and let dry air move in faster?  We’ll have a better idea of that by tonight and definitely by tomorrow.  Stay tuned for those updates.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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