Blog: Cold Front Swings In. Wintry Mix Still Possible.

Future Trak (Saturday AM)

This morning was a little give-and-take.  We did have a lot of rain in the region, but the temperatures were mild.  We started the day with widespread rain showers.

Rain This Morning

The Rain wasn’t heavy, but it did create a lot of wet roads and slow-downs.  Meanwhile temps were in the upper 50s to low 60s in the metro.

Temps This Morning

Temps did start to fall north of the metro.  The cold front has been slipping in from the northwest.  It will continue to drop southeast through midday.

Satellite/Radar

The rain will break-up by the mid-morning. We’ll have some isolated showers between then and the evening, but the chance for any rain will be much lower.  Temperatures will drop to the 40s by the afternoon.

Tonight we’ll have lots of clouds in the region.  There may be some isolated showers.  Due to the cloud cover, temps shouldn’t fall too much. Low temps will be near 40s with some upper 30s inland.  Tomorrow should be fairly quiet.  We’ll have lots of clouds in the region.  The cold front will stall out offshore.  We may see some isolated showers, but it’s a pretty low chance.  High temps will only be in the upper 40s to near 50.  It will be chilly for us, but not nearly as cold as in the northern states.

An area of low pressure will form offshore along the front Thursday night into Friday.  Also there will be a huge dip in the jetsream (trough) over our heads.  This will allow the rain to push back into the region.  There may be a few inland sleet pellets Friday morning, but otherwise it will just be a chilly rain.

Future Trak (Friday Morning)

We’ll have chilly rain on-and-off through the day.  High temps will only rise to the mid-upper 40s.  By Friday night colder air will move east through the region. This will probably allow for a transition to a wintry mix.  The mix of rain, sleet, and some snow will start around the I-95 corridor.  Then it will move east after midnight.  This area looks like it will be over Hampton Roads by Saturday morning.

Future Trak (Saturday AM)

The models dry things out by the late morning.  The offshore low would move farther to the northeast by that point, and that would probably push the cold front east (farther offshore).  The upper low will sit over us Saturday into Sunday.  So we’ll probably have a lot of clouds.  We could see some flurries on Sunday as a spoke of energy rounds the bend of the big trough.  We’ll see how much moisture is in the region at that time.  High temps will be in the 40s over the weekend.

So let’s talk a little more about Saturday morning.  The wintry mix will be a combination of rain, sleet, and snow.  Surface temps would likely be above freezing.  Though European model is pretty close to the freezing mark at that time (33-34 degrees).  It suggests a little light snow could stick.  On the other hand the GFS model has no snow accumulating.  The air will be cold enough at 850 millibars (pressure height).  However, the model thicknesses that we use to forecast winter weather suggest a warm layer in the mid or upper levels of the atmosphere.  The magic number (540 thickness) is to our west for most of the time.  That is the level between the surface and 500 millibars in meters.  The higher resolution models will be able to handle the different layers better as it gets into range in the next 24 hours.  However, the models are at least all trending with this chance for a mix early Saturday morning.  For now my gut says nothing will stick except maybe in a couple of spots. We’ll see.  I also wonder how much moisture will be in the region overall.  I mentioned that in yesterday’s weather blog.  We still have some time for updates.  I’ll have a full update on the weather blogs tomorrow.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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