Today will be the warmest day for a while. It was nice heading into work today with temperatures in the 50s. We had temps in the 50s and 60s through the morning. So it won’t take much to warm up to 70 degrees or more this afternoon. High pressure is creeping farther offshore.
This is giving us a steady breeze out of the south at 10-15mph. That breeze will continue to pull up more warmth and humidity through the day. We’ll have lots of clouds and some scattered showers.
It won’t be a washout, but scattered showers are possible at any time of the day. By late tonight a bigger swath of showers will move in from the west. This will happen after midnight. We’ll see that wide area of rain from about 1am until 7am.
The rain will continue through most of the morning commute. Then it should push south. However, it could linger over the Outer Banks of North Carolina as well as near the Albemarle Sound. High temperatures tomorrow will be in the low-mid 50s. Temps will fall to the 40s by late in the day. The front will start to stall out offshore, but the colder air will also start to settle into the region. We’ll have lows in the 30s Thursday night into Friday morning, but they will likely stay above freezing. An area of low pressure will form along the front (offshore). This is forecast to push some moisture up into our region. That will bring in some chilly rain Friday morning. We could see some sleet trying to mix-in inland, but the models have backed off of that a little bit.
I also wonder how much moisture there will be at the surface. Either way, rain is expected to be on-and-off through the day Friday. Then new trend is for the moisture and precipitation to continue Friday night into Saturday morning. This is when things could get interesting. High temps will only be in the 40s during the day on Friday. So it won’t take much to get cold by Friday evening. During that time the much colder air will push in from the west. Especially in the upper levels. This could allow for a time of a wintry mix of cold rain, sleet, and some light snow. The mix would start inland by Friday night.
Then the mix would migrate east as the colder air slides east. This could briefly allow the (Mix) to reach Hampton Roads by early Saturday morning.
Soil temps would be above freezing, Surface air temperatures would be mostly above freezing. Also there would be a wet ground. So I doubt anything would stick. However, if the temps drop a couple of degrees, and/or if the precip becomes heavy, then it could briefly stick in a few places. There will be a big upper level low overhead. NOW….Keep some of this in mind: The surface low and front will be pretty far out to sea. So I wonder how much moisture will wrap in to the west. The models are trending with this scenario of a cold rain turning into a wintry mix Friday night into Saturday morning. Just remember that they changed quite a bit in the last 24 hours, and they will likely change again in the next 24. At this time nothing is pointing to any big snow in the region. I think the models will be able to handle the moisture forecast a little better in the next 24 hours. So we’ll see how things trend. Overall we’ll be drier Saturday into Sunday. High temps will be in the 40s. Lows will be in the 30s. The upper level low overhead will be big and strong. So I think we’ll see quite a bit of clouds. Also, there could be some flurries passing through. The models hint at a little better chance for that late Sunday compared to Saturday. I’ll have a better idea of that by Thursday.
Please don’t go out and buy bread and milk at this point. Just keep an eye on the updates. A lot of what falls will probably melt if we even get the wintry mix at all.
One more thing before I go… We could see about 0.25″ up to 0.75″ of rain between now and Wednesday evening. It will be nice to get some measurable rainfall.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler