Blog: Enjoy It While You Can! Plus…End Of Hurricane Season.

Tropics

Yesterday was really nice out.  We did end up hitting 70 degrees in Norfolk.  It didn’t break any records, but it was well above the average high of 57 degrees. Today will still be very nice, but we will cool down a little.  We have an area of high pressure to the north, and this is going to give us an onshore breeze today.

Regional Weather Map

Winds will run at 5-10mph out of the east/northeast.   This will keep temps in the low-to-mid 60s this afternoon with some upper 60s inland and south.  It will still be a veeery nice day.  We’ll have fair skies and dry air.  By tonight a cold front will move into the region from the northwest.  There may be a stray shower between midnight and 7am.  However, the chances have dropped to only about 15-20%.

Future Trak (Tonight)

After about 7-8am we’ll start to clear out.  The front will pass to our south, and we’ll be dry for most of the day.  High temps will be in the mid-upper 50s.  We’ll be dry and cool for this weekend.  Highs will be in the 50s both days.  Low temps will be in the 30s and 40s. We’ll start warming up early next week.  High temps will be near 60 by Monday. Then we’ll be in the mid-upper 60s Tuesday and Wednesday.  A big cold front is forecast to move in around Wednesday.  This is later than yesterday’s forecast.  It could allow for more warming than the models currently show.  That will probably depend on the amount of clouds around. Either way….all signs point to a huge drop in temps next Thursday into Friday.  High temps will be in the 40s and possibly even the 30s on Friday.  The weather looks dry behind the front, but there will be a good chance for rain on Wednesday as the front arrives.  I mentioned before that November has been a dry month, and we could use some rain.

On a different note…Today is the last official day of hurricane season.  It was a very busy and destructive year.  We ended up with 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes.

(2017 Hurricane Season)

This was well above the seasonal average.  It was a little above NOAA’s August seasonal forecast, but it was fairly above the earlier season forecast from May.  There were hundreds of millions of dollars in damage.  Some of the hurricanes devastated areas that will have decades of lasting effects.  Especially Puerto Rico and the Antilles.  Texas was also hit by the flooding rains of Harvey.  Things are quiet now, and I hope there are no post-season storms.  I was looking up some info about past predictions.  I found a neat site that looked at the the number of storms that occurred above and below the average for the year.  The chart goes back to the mid 90s.  Here’s the link:  Past prediction accuracy.  That info reinforces my belief that seasonal hurricane forecasts should be dropped.  At least for the specific numbers.

Finally, before I go…  I found an interesting article about air pollution in general.  What’s interesting about this article is that it talks about how air pollution may not affect personal health as much as previously thought.  It talks about how some of the coverage and studies about pollution and health may have been overblown (in essence).  This is not just from one scientist.  There are several cited in the article. However, one scientist does go as far as to say that some air is too clean.  (I’m not sure about that.)  I like to show multiple views to Global Warming when I post to this blog. This is the first time that I found a contrary view to how much air pollution causes ill health and death.  You be the judge.  Here is the article: Air pollution effects overblown? This is a complex issue.  So I recommend digging in, and looking at multiple sources of information about the subject.  Until then…enjoy today’s fresh air…

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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