Blog: Nice Warm Day, Then Steady Cooling!

Temperature Trend

Temps are going to warm up nicely today.  This morning I didn’t have to scrape frost off of my car.  So that was a nice change.  Temps started off in the 40s and 50s in the region.  The sun was shining.  It was a great start to the day.  As we go into the afternoon we will warm up quite a bit.  High temps will rise to the upper 60s.  We’ll have a few 70s inland and south.  We had hit the low 60s already yesterday, and that was with a cold start and a light northwest wind.  Today high pressure is sitting just offshore.  So we’ll have southwest winds running at 5-10mph.

Regional Weather Map

There is a wind-shift (black line above) over West Virginia that will be moving into the region later today.  This will flip the winds to out of the north for a while.  Some locations near the shore could cool down slightly, but overall today will be unseasonably warm.  The average high for this time of year is 57 degrees.  No rain is expected to move in with this boundary.  Skies will stay mostly clear.  Tomorrow the wind will be out of the northeast at 5-10mph.  This will keep us a little cooler, but we’ll still be mild with highs in the low 60s.  There will be lots of sunshine again.  It will be another nice day.

Temperature Trend

On Friday a cold front will move through the region.  This time there will be some scattered showers.  This will be the only chance for rain in the 7 day forecast….(probably).  We’ll have a mix of sun and clouds on Friday. Highs temps will be in the upper 50s.  We’ll be dry and cooler on Saturday with highs in the low-mid 50s.  We’ll start warming up into next week.  Highs will be back in the 60s by Monday.  Then by Tuesday high temps will run close to 70 degrees.  That will depend on how fast the clouds move in, and how soon some showers move in.  For now I have the rain holding off until Tuesday night. (Hence the “probably” mentioned earlier).  Big systems tend to come in slower than the models forecast on days 3-5.  This system developing looks pretty big. Colder air looks like it will pool in central Canada.  Then it will drop to the south and southeast through the week.  So by the time we hit next Friday, we may see high temps in the 40s or even the 30s.  There will be rain along the front, but for now it looks dry behind the system.  This is still far out in time.  It is just a trend.  So we have lots of time for updates before that weather happens.

I wish I had more time to dig into some of the world weather stories.  For now I will post this one.  Many have looked at NOAA’s Winter outlook that was posted about a month ago.  Here’s some of the graphics they posted:

2017 winter outlook - temperature
NOAA Winter Outlook (temperature)

 

 

2017 winter outlook - precipitation
NOAA Winter Outlook (Precipitation)

They call for a warmer and drier South with a colder and wetter North.  We are in the warmer/drier category according to the maps.  They cite a developing La Nina weather pattern as one of the main drivers for the forecast.  (I’m paraphrasing).  However, not all forecasters agree with this scenario.  One private group (Judah Cohen/AER) claims that there will be colder than normal conditions from the Midwest/Great Lakes down into the southeast.  Bitter cold temps are forecast for the north central U.S.  The article does talk about La Nina, but they also claim other factors like snow cover over northern Asia.  I’ve seen some other articles about that last factor, and I think there is some good/developing science about it.  The North Atlantic Oscillation is also a big factor, but I didn’t see that mentioned.  It does talk about some recent blocking patterns.  Anyway, here is the article about the private forecast.  Private forecast differs from NOAA. 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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