Blog: Warmer Than I Thought!

Temperature Forecast

Before I get into the current weather and the forecast, I want to take a look back at last Month.  October was warm.  Warmer than I thought.  For some reason I remember the handful of chilly mornings and some cool/mild afternoons.  I didn’t forget about the warm days, but there were a lot more warm temperatures than I remember.   Take a look:

October Temperatures

The red line on the graphic is the average temperature.  Remember, it drops through the Fall.  So that’s why it’s slanted.  Anyway, as you can see, there were many days well above the average.  The month finished out 4.7 degrees above average.  It was the 6th warmest October on record in Norfolk.  Again, that was a bit surprising to me.  That information comes from the National Weather Service, and the data is taken in Norfolk.

Going forward we are going to see the same type of pattern.  We have a warm day on the way today and tomorrow with a 1 day cool down on Saturday.

Temperature Trend

Today a warm front has moved well north of the region.  We are well into the warm zone.

Regional Weather Map

It’s interesting that just yesterday they had snow into parts of Ohio and Pennsylvania.  Today Ohio will have highs in the 60s and possibly 70s.  Parts of Texas will hit the 90s today, but highs will only be in the upper 30s in Minnesota.

Temperature Forecast

Crazy!

Locally we’ll have highs in the mid-upper 70s with a couple of 80s inland.  We have a lot of clouds this morning, but we’ll clear out through the day.  Tomorrow we’ll have partly sunny skies through the entire day.  We’ll start mild, and we’ll end warm.  High temps will be in the upper 70s to near 80 for most of the region.  The average high is in the mid 60s this time of year, and the record high for tomorrow is 83 degrees (1950).

By Friday night a cold front will move through the region.  A few showers could come in with the front.  This will cool things down on Saturday.  High temps will drop to the upper 60s.  Truthfully, I’m looking forward to it.  There will be quite a bit of clouds though.  Plus, some isolated showers are possible on and off through the day.  This cool down will be brief.  By Sunday the front will lift back north as a warm front.  So we’ll warm up to the mid 70s with partly cloudy skies.  I’ve taken the rain out of the forecast for now.  We’ll be warm on Monday with partly cloudy skies. Highs will return to the upper 70s.  There will be some showers late in the day.  Maybe holding off until the evening.  Tuesday is election day, and at this time it is tricky.  The GFS model has a front sitting over the region. This could cause scattered showers on and off through the day.  However, the European model has the front passing to our south.  So it keeps the area fairly dry.  I think this difference will get resolved later today, or by tonight.  It’s no surprise that the models are split. There are extreme differences in temperatures between the northern and southern United States.  So the models are handling the situation differently.

Luckily things are quiet in the tropics.  Let’s hope that keeps up through the rest of the year.

This next story is interesting and possibly a bit controversial.  It was in the weekly stories that the American Meteorological Society sends me (I am a sealed member).  Apparently the National Weather Service has a big shortage of employees.  At least on a national scale.  This has impacted some offices. The article that I found paints an almost dire picture.  The NWS Labor Union produced a letter saying that the Organization “…is close to teetering on the brink of failure.”  One example given is the office that serves Washington D.C. and Baltimore is down 5 employees as we go into the Winter months soon.  The article and the letter talk about how morality is really down in some offices.  Here is the full article with more information: NWS staff shortages.  This is from the Washington Post.   I will say that I haven’t noticed any difference in the forecasts or products from our local National Weather Service offices.  So if they are down personnel, then they are doing a good job of keeping the work flowing.  It will be interesting to see what happens in the next few months. I hope the best for them.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 

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