There is a lot of sunshine as we start the weekend…even though it was a cool start to the day. A warm Southerly wind will help spike temps into the 70s this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front that won’t arrive until tomorrow.
70s should hold on into your Sunday as well, but behind the front…it cools down by Monday back into the 60s for highs.
Between now and then, the front will gradually move into the Tidewater area. Sunday morning, the cold front will just be entering our Region as an area of low pressure develops along it.
Plan on the potential for moderate to heavy rain on Sunday morning affiliated with this system, and there will be a small window for possibly an isolated severe storm or two to form.
An upper level trough of low pressure will be set up in such a way over our area that ample atmospheric lift can be expected along with wind shear (change in wind speed and direction with height). These conditions along with sufficient low level moisture moving in & an actual surface low moving across our area will all add to the recipe for heavy rain…but also a few isolated strong to severe storms. The risk is on the low-end (only Marginal), and the timing will be earlier in the morning (after Midnight thru 10AM). The great thing is that the instability will be very limited considering the timing will be earlier in the morning, but there could still be a pop-up severe storm or two. So, have a way of getting severe weather alerts overnight…just in case a warning is issued.
Otherwise, expect periods of rain throughout the day as the system takes its timing crossing our region.
Some scattered showers will be possible in the afternoon…lingering in some areas thru the evening. Rainfall estimates will generally be from 1/2 inch to an inch (see graphic below), but locally heavier amounts are possible.
Sunday night into Monday, the system will pull away from our area, but it will get stronger as it moves off to the NE by Monday.
This will turn into a major storm system for New England by Monday… including heavy rain with flooding concerns and very strong winds. Locally, no rain by Monday, but it will become windy with sustained winds around 20mph…gusting higher. Further north, winds of 30+mph are expected. High pressure will move in by Halloween…leading to some beautiful & cool trick or treating weather.
As far as the tropics: Tropical Depression #18 formed this morning in the NW Caribbean Sea, and it’ll be sliding NE across Cuba towards the Bahamas by Sunday Morning.
There is a window of opportunity for it to further develop into a Tropical Storm (Philippe) by Sunday monring, but it will get caught up in a frontal system (the same cold front moving across our area tomorrow). So, it’ll stay east of our area as it’s picked up by the front, and it’ll merge with it (over the Atlantic)…as it is directed towards the NE US. Stay tuned for tropical updates.
Watch Meteorologist Ashley Baylor tonight on WAVY TV 10 for the latest on Sunday’s forecast.
Enjoy the day!
Meteorologist Deitra Tate