Blog: Stalled Out Front, And Increasing Coolness.

Regional Weather Map

Overall we will have some nice weather in the region today.  Things have cooled down since yesterday and the humidity has dropped.  I say “overall” because there actually will be a couple of showers in the region.  Let’s talk about it…

The slow-moving cold front finally moved offshore last night.  However, it has basically stalled-out off the coast.

Regional Weather Map

There is a column of showers east of the front (which is well offshore).  However, a few showers slipped west of the front and moved over the Outer Banks.  This is due to a very large trough (dip in the jet stream) in the upper levels. It is picking up some of the showers and bringing them north.  So we will have a few showers possible along the coast today.  Meanwhile at the surface we have a cool northerly breeze developing.  This will help to keep the temperatures down.  High temps will be in the upper 60s this afternoon with a few 70s inland.  The breeze will be out of the north at 8-12mph.

The dew points have dropped to the 50s.  It isn’t bone dry out there.  There is some light humidity.

Dew Points

By late in the day the north winds will pull down some of that drier air.  The dew points will drop to the 30s and 40s.  This is important for tonight’s forecast.  Temperatures can’t drop below the dew points.  So tonight our temps will be able to drop down to the 40s across the region.  There may even be a few 30s inland and north.  Skies will be partly cloudy with light winds.  There could be a stray shower near the coast late tonight into early tomorrow morning, but it won’t be much.  Through the day tomorrow we’ll dry out even more.  It will also be cooler as well. High temps will be in the low 60s with clearing skies.  Winds will be out of the northwest at 8-12mph.

By tomorrow night low temps will drop to the mid 40s with 30s inland.  We could get some patchy frost.  So plan accordingly.  Then we’ll have great weather Friday and Saturday.  Highs will be in the 70s with fair skies.  By Sunday a big stream of moisture will develop over the region.  This will create some deep humidity along the east coast.  Also a big cold front will approach from the west.  An area of low pressure could start to form over our region as well.  This will create a very wet Sunday.  We could see some heavy rain and gusty winds in the region. It could be a washout.

Future Trak (Long Range)

This could be a good shot at some measurable rain for those that need it.  I’ll talk more about amounts as it gets closer.  The system will move north by Monday.  We’ll have cooler weather then early next week behind it.

In the tropics there is still a weak disturbance near central America.

Tropical Satellite

It has a medium chance for formation over the next few days.  If it does form (briefly), then it could impact Cuba.  However, as it gets farther north, it would probably merge with one of the big cold fronts that are sweeping through the U.S.  We’ll watch this area over the next couple of days.

In national news… Pretty soon a new satellite is going to go up into space that will enhance weather analysis and forecasts.  This one is a Polar Orbiting satellite.  Geostationary satellites (Like GOES-16) rotate over the earth at just the right speed and distance to stay in place over one spot over the Earth.  However, Polar Orbiters rotate around the earth daily, and travel over the north and south poles.  The polar orbiters have very high resolution instruments onboard. The current ones bring us a lot of good data. NOAA and NASA will launch the next generation polar orbiter in November if all goes well.  The Joint Polar Satellite System -1 will use High resolution sensors to monitor and enhance current weather observations.  This could help to improve weekly forecasts as the data gets utilized by the current and future computer models.  Here is the link with more information: New Polar Orbiting Satellite.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 

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