Nice & Warm Locally, but Nate is Approaching the Gulf Coast

TODAYS WEATHER PATTERN

Expect some beautiful weather today!  High pressure is offshore of our coastline, and a southerly wind on the backside of the High is pumping warmer air into the Tidewater area.

TODAY’S WEATHER PATTERN

 

Highs will remain above average all weekend…and into early next week.  Today, temps will be around 10° above average…with temps 10-15° above average by Monday.

TEMPERATURE TREND

 

Tuesday, a cold front will cross our area…leading to cooler temps (back into the 70s) by Wednesday. Rain will be hard to find today, but isolated showers are possible for inland areas…closer to I-95. We already had some spotty showers across some inland areas this AM.  However, most of the Tidewater area will enjoy dry weather today.

FUTURE TRAK FORECAST – TODAY

 

Tomorrow, a few additional showers are possible…but not from Nate.  We’ll just have an increase in moisture courtesy of that south wind, and some upper level energy could help trigger some scattered showers for our Sunday afternoon plans (see graphic below). It’ll be far from a wash-out.

FUTURE TRAK FORECAST – TOMORROW

 

Unfortunately due to Nate, it WILL be a wash-out for the Gulf Coast by Sunday morning as Nate moves onshore of the Northern Gulf Coast. The higher rainfall estimates could be over 4″… possible up to 7″ in some areas. The risk for higher rain amounts will extend all the way into Northern AL, possibly TN, and parts of GA.

RAINFALL ESTIMATES FOR GULF COAST

 

Other impacts for the Gulf Coast will of course be Storm Surge…with up to 9′ of surge over normally dry ground for some areas across SW AL…especially around the Mobile Bay area. Plus, higher winds could lead to some structural damage along with downed trees and power outages. Also, there will be a tornado risk on Sunday for areas to the East of Nate’s center…including much of AL, FL Panhandle, and even into GA.

SPAGHETTI PLOTS FOR NATE- TONIGHT

 

So, based on the forecast models…landfall could be anywhere from SE Louisiana as early as later tonight ( see above)…

SPAGHETTI PLOTS FOR NATE- EARLY SUNDAY

 

Or… as late as early Sunday morning across anywhere from the MS to AL Gulf Coast (see above).   From that point, Nate will race across the TN River Valley…by early Monday. Then quickly end up around the NE by Monday night (see graphic below).

SPAGHETTI PLOTS FOR NATE- BY MONDAY NIGHT

 

By the time it reaches the NE, it’ll be a remnant low…bringing rain to parts of New England.  Locally for us, rain from Nate won’t be as much of an issue. However, as Nate transitions into a non-tropical low & gets attached to a frontal boundary, that front ( a cold front) will cross late Tuesday…bringing more showers ahead of it Monday into Tuesday.

 

Watch Meteorologist Ashley Baylor tonight for the latest on your local forecast and NATE as it gets closer to making a landfall across the Northern Gulf Coast.

 

Meteorologist Deitra Tate

 

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