Blog: Will Jose Paso Doble?

Forecast Models

Jose is doing a big loop over the ocean right now that resembles a twirl from the Paso Doble.  Let’s hope it keeps dancing out to sea.  The latest forecasts look good for us, and the confidence is increasing that it will stay away.  However, even with its latest projections we would still see some local impacts.

Currently Jose is a few hundred miles east of the Bahamas.  It looks like it had weakened a little on satellite as the tall cloud tops (dark orange) have decreased in size.

Tropical Satellite

There is some decent wind shear working on the system.  Also it is about to move over its past path.  Remember hurricane create upwelling underneath them. This pulls up cooler water from below.  So there it will cross this narrow channel of cooler water soon.  These features should act to weaken the system.  It will probably become a tropical storm again soon.  However, over the next couple of days the wind shear should decrease, and it will move over warmer water again.  So it will probably return to hurricane status. That will happen going into the weekend.  By that point it should turn and move to the northeast.  This would be Monday into Tuesday.  The most likely path takes Jose half way between Hatteras and Bermuda.  That is a good spot.

Track Of Jose

The models are in pretty good agreement now in having it follow this track.  The lines getting closer together is a sign of growing confidence.

Forecast Models

Luckily the GFS and European models agree on this scenario as well.

GFS VS European Model

Looking at this graphic it shows a little more than where the center could be.  Notice that the isobars (lines of equal pressure) are still clustered as far west as the east coast in both models.  Basically, that means that we could see some breeziness here along our coast.  The destructive winds would be offshore, but the coastal breeze could pick up.  If it lasts for a while, then we could also see some minor tidal flooding.  Especially if the storm slows down a little.  Also, the European model has Jose getting fairly close to the coast of some northeast states on Wednesday.

GFS VS European Model

I think by that point it would be more of a nor’easter than a hurricane.  Remember the wind and rain in a non-tropical system can spread out more.  So that could allow some rain to reach our area.  No matter what we will have some high waves and a high threat for rip currents.

While confidence is growing in an offshore track, it’s still too early to give the “All clear”.  The models could still shift a little.  While a direct hit is unlikely, it’s still possible for Jose to get closer to the coast Monday-Tuesday.  So stay tuned for updates.  On top of that, there are two weak disturbances over in the eastern Atlantic.  They have a medium chance for development over the next few days as they move west.  We’ll keep you posted.

Closer to home we have high pressure moving away from our region.  The weak remnants of Irma are moving towards us.

Regional Weather Map

This is just a weak area of low pressure at this point, and it won’t have any big impacts on our region.  We’ll have some isolated showers this morning, then we’ll have scattered showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon.

Future Trak (This Afternoon)

Highs will be in the mid 80s with moderate to high humidity.  Winds will be out of the southwest at 5-10mph. A few showers and storms will continue tonight.  Tomorrow the surface low will kick out to sea, but a little upper level energy will hang back.  So we will have some isolated showers and/or thunderstorms in the afternoon.  Highs will be in the low 80s. Over the weekend we’ll hold onto some isolated showers.  One model hints at a rain band or two breaking off from Jose and moving towards Hampton Roads.  It’s not out of the question.  For now I have at least some isolated showers possible for both Saturday and Sunday.  The Monday/Tuesday forecast has dried up as the rain looks like it will mainly stay offshore.  However, it won’t take much of a westward drift to bring some rain to the coast.  Stay tuned for updates.

With all of the talk lately about the models.  I found another article that talks about the recent accuracy of some of the models during hurricane Irma.  According to the article, many of the American models didn’t do so well compared to the European model.  Here is the link: Forecast model accuracy during during Irma.

Another big part of the story is insurance.  Many insurance companies will take a hit between Irma and Harvey.  It will be interesting to see the numbers after a time.  Here is an article with more information: Irma Insurance.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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