Blog: Carefully Watching The Track Of Jose.

Updated Models

With Irma gone now, we are going to be able to focus solely on hurricane Jose.  Yesterday Afternoon/evening just about all the models were pointing to a forecast that was well offshore. It looked like we were “Out of the woods” so to speak.  Then when I checked the forecasts this morning, things had changed quite a bit.

At the moment Jose is drifting southeast as a minimal hurricane.  It is located a few hundred miles east of the Bahamas.

Tropical Satellite

The system has been in a loop for the past 24 hours that was guided by a trough to the northeast of the system.  That trough is moving out and high pressure will build back in.  So Jose is forecast to keep looping to the south, west, and then northwest….eventually back to the northesat.  Here is the latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center:

Track Of Jose

I was surprised that the track hadn’t shifted farther west.  It was nudged slightly since last night.  The updates today will be interesting.

The reason is the computer models.  Here are the latest computer models.

Forecast Models

The GFS (AVNO on the above map) had the largest shift since yesterday.  It was offshore yesterday evening, but this morning it had the storm basically hitting the Eastern Shore.  At least the overnight run had it a little farther offshore.

Here is that update:

Updated Models

The Hurricane WRF (HWRF) is trending east.  So that is a good sign.  However, the European model (Not shown) was starting to have a really interesting trend.  The latest run has it well offshore through Monday. Then it has it retrograding west and sitting a couple hundred miles east of our region Tuesday into Wednesday.  At least no models show a direct hit on our area, but if it were to sit offshore for a time, then we would get some wind.  Plus, that would create some tidal flooding in our region.  No matter what we will have some high waves and a high threat for rip currents from now into the middle of next week.  Tomorrow we’ll have a lot more confidence in the track.  Plus, tomorrow I’ll start showing the GFS and the European model comparisons.  Stay tuned.

Locally, high pressure is building in close to the region. The remnants of Irma were drifting over towards Kentucky.

Regional Weather Map

We had some scattered showers last night. they are already pushing out.  Skies will clear today, and we will heat up.  High temps will rise to the upper 80s with a light southwest wind.  The humidity has really increased.  Dew points were in the 50s and low 60s yesterday.  Today they are in the 70s.  So this afternoon it will feel like the 90s with the heat index.  By tomorrow the weak remnants of Irma will move east across our region.  We’ll have some scattered showers.

Future Trak (Thursday Afternoon)

The moisture won’t really clear out into the weekend.  So some isolated showers are possible each day.  Otherwise it should be pretty nice out.  Skies will be partly cloudy. Highs will be in the 80s.  Early next week the forecast will depend on Jose.  Hopefully, it will stay well offshore.  We’ll focus on that more closely tomorrow.

With all of this model talk…I found an interesting article that came out this last Spring about the GFS.  Apparently the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) did an update to the GFS, and it may have been a step backwards. According to this article on Mashable, the National Hurricane Center felt that a recent upgrade to the global model had led to a decrease in accuracy as far tropical systems go.  I will say that the day-to-day GFS updates have had some wild swings this season.  The European has had a couple, but not nearly as many.  Anyway, here is the article with more information.  Recent GFS model update a bad thing? 

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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