Blog: Irma Falls Apart, Jose Swirls, Few Local Showers.

Irma Now A Rain-Maker

This morning the update came in from the National Hurricane Center.  Irma had fallen apart as a tropical system.  It is now just a rain-maker for a lot of the Southeast (and some of the Midwest).

Irma Now A Rain-Maker

The winds have really settled down.  There were a few gusts to 30mph, but those were far from the center of the low.  The system will continue to fall apart, but the moisture has spread out across the eastern U.S.  This moisture is causing some scattered showers in our region today.  I put the chance for rain at 30%.  There’s no particular time where the rain chances are highest.  We could see a few showers at any time.  However, it will be far from a washout.  They will be very hit-or-miss.  They may increase in coverage by tonight as the moisture increases even more.  A few showers will linger into early tomorrow morning.  Then we’ll clear out.  Wednesday looks good.  There may some isolated showers, but otherwise we’ll have partly cloudy skies.  High temps will be near 80 today with an easterly breeze (10-15mph with gusts to 20mph near the shore).  Tomorrow we’ll have a light westerly wind.  So we’ll heat up to the upper 80s.  Scattered showers will move back in on Thursday as the broad/weak remnants of Irma slowly drift east.  The moisture will never really clear out going into the weekend.  So we’ll have some isolated showers possible each day.  Monday’s weather will depend on the track of Jose.

Hurricane Jose is beginning its big loop.  This morning it was a few hundred miles east of Florida, and it was moving to the east.

Tropical Satellite

Jose will hook around to the southeast, south, and then back to the west over the next few days.

Track Of Jose

There is good agreement in the models about this part of the forecast.  Jose will then try to move to the northwest between Sunday into Monday.   After that point is the tough part of the forecast.  Some models have a trough picking up Jose and moving it back to the north or northeast.  A couple other models have it moving mostly northwest.  That would be bad news for the east coast.  Here are some of the latest forecast models:

Forecast Models

Unlike Irma, I’m not going to show you the ever changing GFS and European models at this point.  I’m going to wait and show that in a day or two.  But I do want to give you the trend.  I will say that the track of the GFS is on the above graphic.  It is labeled (AVNO).  That stands for the Aviation model which was the shorter-term version of the longer range MRF model.  Now that has become the GFS (Global Forecast Model) that you are probably familiar with. Anyway, it’s track is out to sea this morning. The European is weaker and even farther out to sea.  Cccccc’mon European. We will watch this carefully over the next couple of days.  The system should weaken as there is decent wind shear over the system.  Also it will move over its past path.  Remember, there is usually upwelling under a hurricane.  Cooler water rises and replaces the warm water at the surface. However, this effect will be brief as it keeps moving west past that zone.  There is plenty of warm water out there. It does look like there is a cooler band of water in Irma’s past path.  That is interesting.  There is also some much cooler water along the east coast.

Sea Surface Temperatures

No matter what we’ll want to watch this one closely.  No matter what we’ll get some waves and a high threat for rip currents along the local beaches.  If the system gets closer, then that will be the lesser of our problems.  Stay tuned for updates.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 

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