Blog: Irma Weakens, Jose Curving, Local Weather.

Regional Weather Map

Hurricane Irma made landfall over southern Florida over the weekend.  There are many stories about the damage it left in its wake.  Especially over the Caribbean islands.  Now the system is moving over northern Florida.

Rain, Clouds, & Wind From Irma

The heavy rain from Irma was moving from Jacksonville up into Savannah Georgia.  The system weakened to a category 1 hurricane early this morning..  Then it weakened down to a tropical storm by 8am.  The system is moving to the north/northwest at a steady pace.  It will move into Alabama as a tropical storm by tonight.  It should then fall apart near Memphis by tomorrow night or early Wednesday morning.

Track Of Irma

The system is forecast to drop about 3-6″ of rain from Jacksonville to central Georgia.  Flooding is possible as far north as Atlanta and Charleston.

Rainfall Forecast

Notice that the rain forecast for Hatteras, NC is pretty meager compared to our south.  The forecast for our area has really improved over the last 2 days.  We thought we would see some heavy rain, gusty winds, and tidal flooding.  Well….now it looks like we’ll see a few scattered showers, a bit of a breeze out of the east, and some nuisance tidal flooding.  Our Future Trak model is keeping most of the rain over North Carolina as far as our region is concerned.  It brings a few showers up once in a while into Hampton Roads.

Future Trak (Saturday Afternoon)

The rain totals barely add up.  Here is the rainfall forecast for our region:

Local Rain Forecast

I think a trace of rain is rounded down.  So it is probably calling for a trace.  I do think we’ll see a little more than the model shows.  I’m calling for a quarter to three quarters of an inch.  We have a bit of an overrunning pattern.  Rain tends to start earlier and move a little farther north than the computer models show in this type of weather.  Even with that I don’t think we’ll see much rain. I don’t expect any rain today as high pressure is in control.

Regional Weather Map

Between the high to the north and Irma to the south we’ll have a persistent easterly breeze. This will run at 10-15mph with gusts to 25mph near the shore today.  Tomorrow as Irma tracks farther west, the wind may actually lighten up a bit here.  Due to the lesser winds, the tide forecast has also improved. We could see some nuisance tidal flooding. Minor at the most, and that’s about it.  A couple of days ago it looked like we could see some minor to moderate tidal flooding, but again…the forecast improved.  As we go through the week we’ll have some of the moisture from Irma in place.  So we’ll see some isolated showers on Wednesday.  On Thursday the rain chances will increase as the weak remnants of Irma drift east.  The moisture will pretty much just hang out as we go into the weekend.  So we’ll have a chance for scattered showers each day.  Temperatures are going to warm up too. We’ll be in the mid-upper 80s from Wednessay into the weekend.  So the recent taste of Fall will come to an end for a while.  By Sunday of next weekend there (Could) be an impact on our area from hurricane Jose.

Right now Jose is a few hundred miles east of the Bahamas.  It is moving to the north/northwest.  It is a category 2 hurricane, but it is weakening.  Jose has an interesting forecast.  It is expected to move north and then northeast in the short term.  It is expected to basically do a loop and then head back to the west/northwest.

Track Of Jose

An upper level low that will be somewhat created from Irma will drift east by next weekend. So I think this will help to bring Jose northward again.  That same trough should move east enough to push Jose to the northeast, and keep it out to sea.  However, the timing of that feature could change.  So stay tuned.  I will say that the latest GFS model brings it preeeeeetty close the coast.  At least for now the majority of the models are agreeing on an (Out-to-sea) scenario.

Forecast Models

Let’s hope they are right.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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