Over the last few days we have had some unseasonably mild and dry air. It’s been great! But today that is coming to an end. A warm front is very slowly lifting up from the south this morning. It is going to almost act as a stationary front as it slowly drifts north. The effects will some scattered showers and storms along with increasing humidity. We already had some isolated to scattered showers in the region this morning. There were a few spots of heavy rain.
Showers will increase through the day. We don’t have much upper level wind support. So I am not expecting severe weather. However, with the humidity increasing quickly, we may see some heavy downpours. Especially this afternoon into the evening.
High temps will be in the in the low-mid 80s. I would go warmer, but the clouds should stay pretty thick through the day. You will, however, notice that the humidity is up. Dew points have risen into the 70s. We’ll have a southeast wind at 5-10mph today. That will help to increase the humidity some more.
By tomorrow a cold front will swipe down out of the Midwest. It will move into Hampton Roads during the late afternoon/early evening. After some isolated showers in the morning, rain will pick up along the front by the afternoon.
Rain will continue on-and-off into Saturday night. It will keep going through Sunday morning. The good news is that the models are starting to trend drier Sunday afternoon into early Monday. I think its because they are starting to let the front sink a little more south by Sunday morning. So we may get a chance to dry out from midday Sunday into Monday morning. That front will try to move back north Monday night into Tuesday. That will bring a big area of rain back into the region. Highs will be in the 80s.
Rain totals will run between 1-2″ now through Saturday night. There will probably be some areas of 3″ or more. The models vary on the forecast totals, but putting them together…that’s what I come up with.
Here’s an update on the tropics: Franklin has fallen apart over Mexico. There was some wind damage and flooding across parts of the region before the system was ripped apart by the higher elevations. There is still some heavy rain leftover, but it is basically gone. There is a weak disturbance causing heavy rain over Florida. That is not likely for form into a system, but some flooding is possible down there today. Meanwhile there is a disturbance that has perked up a little just northeast of Puerto Rico.
It is moving slowly to the northwest. Last night the thunderstorms fired up near the broad center. Luckily the main models (GFS, European) don’t develop the system too strongly. The GFS keeps it weak the entire time, and it looks like it either gets absorbed into one of the fronts or just falls apart. The European model does have it possibly as a weak depression or maybe …maybe a tropical storm, but it keeps it offshore. Also, remember that a couple days ago it had this area as a strong tropical system by the weekend. It has really backed off since. There is some very dry air to the north. So that is working against the system. However, this area will be moving over some warmer ocean water soon. So the bottom line for now is to just stay tuned to the forecast over the weekend. (Update: The disturbance now has a 50% chance according to NHC). Hopefully, it stays weak and offshore.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler