We have one more nice day before rain returns to Hampton Roads. Yesterday was great! It was dry and mild. I will admit though it got hot if you were in the sun and out of the breeze. Especially if you were trimming hedges for 2 hours in the back yard……
Anyway, today will be great weather for most of the area. We have a big area of high pressure just to the north. We have a stationary front just south of Hatteras, NC.
We’ll continue with the northeast breeze today (though it will be light). High temperatures will be in the low 80s. We have some seasonably dry air in place as dew points are in the 50s and 60s today. Typically this time of year is known as the “Dog Days Of Summer”. However, lately I would say that we’ve seen the baby kitten days of Summer. Temps have not been bad at all. Humidity has dropped at times. It’s been great for the most part. Having said that, there may be some isolated showers over North Carolina closer to the front. I don’t think we’ll get any rain over southeast Virginia. Highs temps will be in the low 80s. Humidity will be low-moderate.
By tomorrow the front will drift back north as a warm front. This will increase the humidity. As the front lifts back north it will produce some scattered showers and storms. This could start up already by noon, but we’ll definitely have scattered showers by the afternoon.
These showers and storms will be on-and-off through Friday night and into Saturday. Over the weekend the warm front will slowly rise northward. Meanwhile, another cold front will roll out of the Midwest and into our region. So we’ll have scattered showers and storms from Saturday into early next week. It doesn’t look like a straight-through/all-the-time rain washout. But it does look like a good chance for rain each day. The models suggest that we won’t really dry out until next Wednesday.
Meanwhile in the tropics things are changing. Franklin was a hurricane last night as it made landfall north of Vera Cruz Mexico. It was a category 1 at the time. Now it is down to a weak tropical storm, and it may become a depression by midday.
The storm will grind down over the higher elevations of Mexico. However, this will likely cause flooding over that region. There’s still a low chance that it will try to re-emerge over the Pacific Ocean. We’ll see. There is a weak disturbance near Florida that could cause some flooding down there. I doubt it will become an organized system, but it will be a rain-maker for sure. Finally, there is another disturbance that is east of Puerto Rico. I’ve been watching that one for several days.
This disturbance has been moving west/northwest over the last few days. It hasn’t been too impressive. There is some dry air to the north of the system, and some wind shear overhead. However, conditions may become a little more favorable for development in the next 24-48 hours. A couple of days ago, the European model had the disturbance turn into a strong tropical storm or a lower-end hurricane and moving towards the coast. Now, it only forecasts a weak system and it keeps it well offshore. It’s interesting how the European’s forecast has changed over the last few days. Especially, since it did a good job with Franklin’s track and strength. The GFS has kept the disturbance weak the entire time, and it still does. In fact a lot of the models have really backed off development. So we’ll see what happens. It will still be a time before we get to the peak of the season. So I’m sure we’ll be doing a lot more tracking. The updated hurricane season forecast came out yesterday. As you probably know, I am not a fan of these forecasts at all. However, if you are then here is the link: NOAA August Hurricane Season Update.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler