Blog: Brief Break From The Rain And Tracking The Tropics!

Regional Weather Map

The rain has pushed out of the region, and today we are going to get a chance to dry out.  Norfolk had 0.95″ yesterday.  This puts us 1.13″ above average for the monthly rainfall and 4.21″ above average for the year.  Some of the area had 2-3″ for storm totals with a few places near 4″.  However, the heaviest rain was in places (north of Norfolk) that have been abnormally dry.  Now, high pressure is building in from the north.  The cold front that caused all the rain yesterday is settling south of Hatteras this morning.

Regional Weather Map

We are going to have a pretty good day in the region.  Skies will be partly cloudy.  There may be a few stray showers over northeast North Carolina closer to the front.  The best chance for any rain will be along the southern Outer Banks.  It is also going to be cooler today. High temps are going to be in the upper 70s to low 80s.  Our average high for this time of year is 86 degrees.  By tomorrow the weak boundary will try to lift north a bit.  This will increase the rain chances across northeast North Carolina.  A few isolated showers could make it up into Hampton Roads.

Future Trak (Thursday Afternoon)

High temps will still be seasonably cool.  They will be near 80 again tomorrow afternoon.  Winds will be out of the northeast at 5-10mph.

By Friday the weak front will lie over the area, though it will start falling apart.  There will be another cool front moving in from the northwest over the weekend.  This will bring us a decent chance for rain each day.  For now I will say that we will have at least a 50-60% chance for rain Friday through Sunday.   I will tweak these numbers as they get closer.  It’s common for the models to show a large area of rain several days out as the resolution is blocky.  As time goes on, the higher resolution models start to refine the forecast.  So you get a chance to see where and when the breaks in the rain will be.  I say that because I want to try to do some stuff outside as many do.  So I am watching the weather carefully.  We’ll have updates over the next couple of days.  High temps will be in the 80s for the next few days.  We’ll probably be back to upper 80s though this weekend.

In the tropics there is one official system and one disturbance.  Tropical storm Franklin may be a hurricane by the time you read this.  This morning it was a strong tropical storm.  It is now forecast to make landfall as a hurricane over the west coast of Mexico.  It will probably move over the state of Veracruz by Thursday morning.

Track Of Franklin

Then it will move inland and become more of a heavy rain-maker.  Flooding will be a huge problem.  Especially over the higher elevations.  There are some indications that it will move back over the Pacific and become a tropical system again.  We’ll see.

The disturbance in the Atlantic is located a couple hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.  It is moving generally west/northwest.

Tracking The Tropics

This area perked up a little this morning. It is currently in an area that is unfavorable for development.  However, conditions may become more conducive for development about 2-5 days out.  The GFS model still doesn’t do much with this system through that time.  It keeps it weak, and even has it falling apart in a couple of days.  However, the European model strengthens it over the Gulf Stream.  It looks like it brings it up to a strong tropical storm or a low-end hurricane by the weekend.  However, it keeps it offshore.  The model sends it northwest for a while, but then has it turning northeast by Monday.  It brings it about 200-300 miles southeast of Hatteras at its closest.  There’s still a lot of uncertainty, and no system has even formed yet.  So check back for updates over the next couple of days.

In world news… Wind energy is a great green energy program that has really taken off in the United States.  We have at least one wind farm in our viewing area (in northeast North Carolina). A recent article about wind talks about how scientists want to increase the size of the turbines. to increase their efficiency.  This is not easy to do as there are several logistical obstacles.  Especially when it comes to building the structure.  Here is an article with more information.  Super sized wind turbines.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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