Blog: Heavy Rain, Strong Storms, And T.S. Franklin!

NAM Rain Forecast

I knew last Friday that walking into Monday would be tough.  Things looked like they were going to pick up by this time.  Well, the weather did not disappoint.  There were some isolated heavy showers when I arrived to work.

Rain This Morning

A warm front was lifting up from the south.  The isolated to scattered showers formed just north of it.

Regional Weather Map

There is a lot more rain off to the west.  This is pushing east at a pretty good pace.  Notice that there is also an area of low pressure and a cold front to our west.  These features will help the rain to continue through tomorrow.  Basically the warm front will stall out over the northern part of our viewing area.  The low will ride east along the front.  Then it will push through our region tonight into tomorrow.  That will drag the cool front through by Tuesday afternoon.  The result of all of this will be some active weather.  We’ll have several rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the day.  One is expected in the late morning.

Future Trak 11AM

Here is Future Trak this afternoon.  Keep in mind that it backed off the rain during the 8am update, but it had quite a bit in an earlier run.

Future Trak (This Afternoon)

Rain will continue overnight into tomorrow.  Especially during the morning.

Future Trak (Tuesday Morning)

After the front moves through, the rain chances will drop Tuesday afternoon.  There will only be some isolated showers then.  We’ll have some quieter weather Wednesday and Thursday.  Then rain will return next weekend.  Hopefully, it’s not a washout, but at least scattered showers and storms are expected each day.  That’s still a ways out.  So check back for updates.

The rain will add up in the rain gauges.  We could even see some flooding.  I think the area will have a solid 1-2″.  Some locations will see 3″ or more. Here is Future Trak’s forecast:

Future Trak (Rain Forecast)

Keep in mind that it backed off the rain a bit in its last run.  So here is what the NAM model shows through that time.

NAM Rain Forecast

As of the time of this writing, there is a Flash Flood Watch for the Northern Neck and Accomack county.

Flash Flood Watch

This watch may be extended south later today.

Heavy rain will be the main threat, but there is also a threat for severe weather.

Severe Risk

Strong gusty winds will be the greatest risk.  However, an isolated tornado in the region is not out of the question.  An upper level low will also aid in creating some instability in the region.

As far as temps go.  We’ll rise to the mid-upper 80s today despite ample clouds.  Winds will be out of the south at 10-15mph.  The rain may drop the temperatures at times.  It looks like we’ll go for low 80s then for the rest of the week.  Not bad considering it is August.  We’ll be slightly warmer by next weekend. Meanwhile it is still pretty hot over the western U.S.

I mentioned the tropics.  Well, last week it looked like a disturbance in the Atlantic would try and form into something while a disturbance in the eastern Caribbean had a medium chance for formation.  Nature has followed the European model’s forecast.  So the Atlantic disturbance now has a very low chance for formation.  The Caribbean disturbance has become tropical storm Franklin.

Tropical Satellite

Tropical storm Franklin is moving towards the Yucatan Peninsula.  It will likely move over that area as a tropical storm in the next 24 hours.  It will bring heavy rain and gusty wind to that region.  Then by Wednesday it will move into the Bay of Campeche.  It will probably re-strengthen as it moves west over the warm water.  It could briefly become a hurricane before a second landfall.  Heavy rain and flooding will be a threat to Mexico before they system grinds down over the higher elevations.

Track Of Franklin

There’s a lot of moving parts to this forecast.  Check back to WAVY TV for updates to the moving pieces.

Meteorologists: Jeremy Wheeler

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