Blog: Not A Bad Weekend. Watching The Tropics!

Regional Weather Map

We have some pretty good weather as we go into the weekend, but it won’t be completely rain-free.  Take today for instance.  We had a lot of rain across the Outer Banks this morning.   This was closer to a weak area of low pressure that has been skimming the North Carolina coast since last night.  Meanwhile we have a bigger area of high pressure to our north.

Regional Weather Map

We’ll have some isolated showers today in Hampton Roads.  Possibly scattered showers (20-30%).  There will be a higher chance for rain across the Outer Banks, but it shouldn’t be a washout (all-day rain).

Future Trak This Afternoon

We’ll have a mix of sun and clouds with highs temps in the upper 80s.  Winds will be out of the southeast at 5-10mph.  They will try to turn out of the east as the low moves more offshore.

Meanwhile a cold front in the Midwest is moving southeast today.  It will drop into our area by tomorrow.  The models have dried up its arrival quite a bit since yesterday.  I do think we’ll get a few showers in the mid-late morning, but not too much.  By the afternoon the front will drop to our south.  We’ll dry out, and cool down.  Highs will be in the mid-upper 80s.  Winds will turn out of the northwest.  We’ll be dry and comfortable from Saturday evening through Sunday.  Highs will be in the low 80s Sunday afternoon.

By Monday the wet weather will return.  In fact we may be in for a long stretch of wet weather.  The front will move back north a bit and stall out.  An area of low pressure is expected to move along the front.  So we may see rain on-and-off between Monday and Thursday of next week.  This will be good for those that need rain, but it may turn into a bit too much for those that have had decent rainfall lately.  We’ll have updates over the weekend.

We’ll also be updating the tropics.  There are two disturbances out there that we are tracking.  The first one is that disturbance that just came off of Africa.

Tropical Satellite

It is a pretty potent trough, and it has an 80% chance of formation over the next 5 days.  The computer models do pick up on it.  The GFS and European models send it west for the next couple of days.  However, they handle the strength and track differently.  The GFS model has it moving towards the Bahamas by next weekend.   It also has it becoming a sizeable tropical system.  Possibly a hurricane by next weekend.  Meanwhile, the European model keeps it week and sends it more to the west.  So it’s still very early in the game to try and track that feature.  We’ll monitor it over the next few days regardless.  The other disturbance is over the eastern Caribbean.  It is moving slowly to the west/northwest.  This time the GFS doesn’t do much with that feature, but the European model has it becoming a hurricane in the western Gulf of Mexico.  Things are definitely picking up, but neither of these are close to the United States. So this weekend will be fine.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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