Blog: No Records, But Definitely Hot & Humid

Heat Index Forecast

Yesterday, we had several waterspouts form along the Outer Banks.  Folks sent in some great footage of them.  This has become a common occurrence in the Summers.  Stationary fronts drop down into our area now with high frequency from June through August.  They sit for a while.  Then activity pops along the fronts.  Spinning storms seem to happen in the mornings when the relative humidities are highest.   Waterspouts and tornadoes love high relative humidity.  Especially in the lowest 3,000 ft of the atmosphere.   It allows the cloud bases to drop.  All you need is some slight spin (like along a drifting front), and voila.  These fronts are very subtle features.  So it’s tough to track activity along the boundary.  The front was sitting over northeast North Carolina yesterday.  Today it is falling apart.

Stationary Front Falling Apart

This will allow high pressure to build in stronger this afternoon.  That should decrease the rain chances over North Carolina compared to yesterday.  However, some isolated showers or storms are still possible there. I’d say the chance for any waterspouts should also drop as the relative humidity rises compared to yesterday.  However, the chance is also not zero.   Meanwhile in southeast Virginia we’ll have partly cloudy skies with hot and humid weather.  There could be a stray shower or storm, but the chance is a bit higher near or south of the state line.

Future Trak (This Afternoon)

The heat will build today.  High temps will be in the low-mid 90s.  There will be some upper 90s inland.  Winds will be out of the southwest at 8-12mph.  The dew points are in the 70s throughout the entire region.

Dew Points

So with the heat and humidity combined it will feel like 97-103 degrees this afternoon.  We won’t have record heat today.  Record high temperatures are in the low 100s for this time of year.  However, it will be a little tough for those that work outside and for the kids at the Summer camps.  You’ll be fine, but stay well hydrated.  Having said that…the heat will be a little stronger tomorrow.  High temps will aim for the mid-upper 90s.  The heat index will rise to between 99 and 105 degrees.  When you start hitting 105, then heat advisories can be issued.  It depends on how long the heat stays at that level.  It also depends on how many locations hit that number.   Either way we’ll have high temps in the mid-upper 90s Wednesday through Thursday.  There may be some stray or isolated showers/storms during the afternoons, but the chance for rain is low.  By Friday the rain chances will increase a little bit.  Clouds should increase.  That should let the temps drop a couple degrees.  It won’t be enough to really notice though.  We’ll have some scattered showers and storms both Saturday and Sunday.  High temps will be in the upper 80s to low 90s.

In the tropics things are…quiet.  There was a disturbance that came off of Africa over the weekend.  It was pretty potent for a couple of days.  Now it has completely dissolved.  The remnants of tropical depression 4 perked up a little yesterday northeast of Puerto Rico, but it doesn’t look too impressive today.

Tropical Satellite

We’ll keep an eye on everything over the next couple of days.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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