I don’t know what’s bigger news….Cindy making landfall or that we have quiet weather for today and some sunshine. Hmm. I’ll start with Cindy. Tropical storm Cindy has made landfall. It moved over land early this morning between Port Arthur Texas and Cameron Louisiana. It is a very weak tropical storm with sustained winds of only 40mph. Remember…the threshold between a depression and a tropical storm is winds of 39mph. It will be a depression soon if it isn’t already.
Regardless, the rain is the main threat from the storm. There has already been flooding over the Gulf Coast states. Strips of heavy rain were still moving northward to the east of the center. Rain has also recently increased around the center. Cindy will move north/northeast today over Louisiana. It will weaken to a depression later this morning or by the afternoon. Then it will become a non-tropical area of low pressure as it moves from Arkansas into Tennessee. That will happen tonight into tomorrow.
By late tomorrow or Saturday the low is expected to fall apart. I still think the moisture will push east and wrap into a cold front. That front will move through our region on Saturday, and it will cool us down on Sunday. However, the models are in disagreement over the weekend forecast. More on that in a moment. As Cindy moves into Arkansas and Tennessee it could cause some flooding near the center even though the winds will diminish. We will continue to track it.
So back to our local weather. Things looked good this morning.
FINALLY, we didn’t have any rain during the morning commute. The stationary front from yesterday has fallen apart. There is another front to the north that is turning into a warm front. It will push farther to our north today. Weak high pressure is off to our southeast.
We’ll have quiet weather today. Skies will be partly cloudy with a little more clouds at times. We’ll have southwesterly winds running at 8-12mph. I think the sun will try to pop out a little more during the afternoon. So temps will be able to reach the low 90s. It will be fairly humid too. Dew points are in the upper 60s to low 70s. This could create a little instability. So a stray shower or storm is possible, but it is a low chance.
Tomorrow things get tricky. We are going to have quite a bit of moisture in the region. However, there won’t be any big surface features in the area. Future Trak and the NAM model both have hardly any rain for tomorrow afternoon. They only hint at a stray shower or storm. However, the GFS model shows scattered showers and storms during the afternoon. To further complicate things…The Storm Prediction Center has the western sections of the viewing area in a marginal risk for severe weather. So I think we will have some scattered showers and storms, but the coverage will probably be low. I’m putting the chance for rain at 30%. Temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. Stay tuned for updates.
By Saturday we’ll have the cold front that I mentioned moving towards the region. The front should bring scattered showers and storms to the region. I do think it will absorb some of the moisture from Cindy. So heavy rain will be possible. The models also disagree on the timing of the front and the coverage of the rain. The GFS does have the most during the afternoon and evening. The NAM is drier with a few showers and storms coming in during the evening. I think the NAM basically has the front coming through later than the GFS. Either way I do expect some scattered showers and storms late in the day Saturday. The front will be fairly strong. Heavy rain will be possible in any of the storms. I’ll update that forecast tomorrow. Hopefully, the models will start to agree more.
By Sunday the front will drop to our south. It may stall over North Carolina. That would keep up the rain chances there, but I think we’ll only see an isolated shower or two in Hampton Roads. High temps will be in the low 80s. We’ll have another surge of cooler air coming in Monday night into Tuesday. High temps on Tuesday could be in the upper 70s. Not bad!
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler