Blog: More Wetness, And The Tropics Pick Up Quickly!

Tropical Satellite

Wow!  I take a 3 day weekend to go see Metallica in Chicago, and this is how nature repays me.  I landed yesterday in the middle of a sauna in Norfolk, and then the storms moved in later in the day.  We had more rain early this morning, and it was heavy at times.

Rain Last Night

Norfolk only had a trace of rain yesterday, but we picked up 0.4″ there since midnight:

Rainfall Since Midnight

A stationary front has moved back into the region.  It is going to stall out over us today.

Regional Weather Map

Luckily this will help to reduce the temperatures.  Highs will be in the low 80s, as opposed to yesterday’s mid 90s.  However, despite the drop in temps, we’ll still be very humid. Dew points are in the upper 60s to around 70.  We’ll see lots of clouds with some breaks at times.  As far as the rain going forward…The models have the rain breaking for a while between the late morning through the early afternoon.  I think a few showers could continue in northeast North Carolina at that time.  By the late afternoon some showers will come back up from North Carolina into the Southside.

Future Trak This Afternoon

There could be a few heavy showers over North North Carolina, but there is no threat for severe weather today.  I think the rain will get a little farther north than Future Trak shows.  It was up to the Southside in earlier model runs.  Scattered showers with a few storms will continue tonight into tomorrow morning. Especially southeastward.

Future Trak (Wednesday Morning)

The stationary front will stick around for tomorrow, but it should start falling apart.  The models show rain showers for mostly in the morning.  There could be a few during the afternoon, but I think they’ll be isolated-scattered.  High temps will be in the 80s again.

By Thursday the front will dissipate.  We’ll have quieter but also hotter weather.  Skies will be partly cloudy. High temps will be near 90.  Yes…it will be humid again as well.  Going into the weekend, we’ll have some scattered showers and storms Friday afternoon.  Highs will be in the upper 80s.  On Saturday we’ll have a cold front moving into the region.  High temps will reach the lower 90s before the front arrives.  We’ll have a line of showers and storms move into the area before the front.  This rain could be aided by some moisture from a tropical system.  I will talk more about (Cindy) in a moment.  We will cool down some on Sunday.  Highs will be in the mid 80s.  Rain is likely as the front will make very slow progress through the region.

The tropics just got more complicated.  We have one official system and one (Potential) system.  (Course, that depends on when you read this weather blog).

Tropical Satellite

Bret has already become a system.  It is a tropical storm just north of South America.  It is unusually far south, and it is a bit early to form.  but it is a tropical storm, and it is moving west.

Tropical Storm Bret

This system will probably dissipate over the next 3-4 days over the western Caribbean Sea.   So it won’t have any impact on our forecast.   In the meantime Potential System #3 is in the works.  What does that mean?  Well, in the past the National Hurricane Center would put out information on areas that they were watching.  They would be called Invest 98, 99, etc.  The naming was confusing.  Now they call them “Potential Tropical Cyclones”.  I hate to say it, but this is actually creating a new confusion.  Folks are asking me: “So are there 3 systems out there?”.  There is not.  Think of the numbers the same as the numbers for tropical depressions.  They go in order, 1, 2, 3.  So We’ve already had tropical Storm Arlene which was #1.  Bret was #2.  Soon-to-be Cindy is number 3.  This area of disturbed weather is over the central Gulf of Mexico.  It is still disorganized, but the winds are up to 40mph.  So all it needs is a little more organization to become an official tropical storm.  This will likely happen later today.  Once it forms, then the forecast calls for Cindy to move northward towards eastern Texas and western Louisiana over the next couple of days.

Tracking The Gulf System

After that point the system will likely move northeast into Tennessee and then dissipate.

Possible Cindy Scenario

Whether it dissipates or not, it could throw some moisture in our direction by the weekend.  If the timing/position change a little, then it’s possible that the leftover moisture could wrap into the cold front that will move into Hampton Roads between Saturday and Sunday.  This could enhance the rainfall.  Right now that is an outside chance as the deeper moisture will probably stay to our west.  But that is something to watch for.  Especially since we’ve had so much rain recently.  Right now Norfolk is running about 4.5″ above average for the year.  We aren’t running too far behind last year’s totals at this time.  You remember how wet last year was!

In national news…There has been some big time heat out west.  It’s been happening for a few days.  In fact it got so hot in Phoenix, AZ that some planes were grounded recently. Roads are buckling.  Power outages are happening.  It’s pretty rough.  Here is an article with more information: Western U.S. Record Heat.

It’s also been hot in the UK.  They have also been breaking records over there.  Here is an article with more information: UK Heat Wave.

It’s been pretty hot and humid here lately, but the heat would be worse if we didn’t have all of the rain and clouds recently.  We’ll see if this weather pattern continues.  Stay tuned for updates!

Meteorologist: Jeremy wheeler


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