Severe Risk Later Tonight…Until Then HOT & MUGGY

Severe Weather Risk Tonight

The dew point temps remain very high (into the 70s), and that indicates a very tropical-like atmosphere.  This, plus temps in the low 90s, will lead to high heat indices later today.

Dew point temps today

So, highs will reach the low 90s. However, with the humidity, it will FEEL-LIKE it’s in the upper 90s later this afternoon. Make sure to continue with your high heat precautions (e.g. stay hydrated with plenty of water and take frequent breaks).

Heat Index Forecast Today

 

All of the moisture in the atmosphere will serve as plenty of fuel for afternoon showers to form.

A Few Showers This Afternoon

 

So, plan for a few showers between Noon & 5PM due to the heat of the day. Then, after 8PM tonight, a line of stronger showers and storms will move into the Region ahead of a cold front.

Todays Weather Pattern

 

With all of the abundant low level moisture in place, that front will have no problems triggering more showers/storms. However, atmospheric conditions will be favorable for storms that could include damaging wind, hail, and even isolated tornadoes (due to wind shear that’ll be present). Wind shear is the change in wind speed / direction with height that help storms live longer & potentially rotate.

Severe Weather Risk Tonight

 

The higher risk for severe storms will be for areas closer to Richmond and the Northern Neck.  A Slight Risk is possible for the northern and western portions of Hampton Roads (closer to I-95).  Less of a risk (marginal) will be for SE Virginia and NE North Carolina.

Line of Storms Heavy Rain Tonight

 

Since the best time-frame for severe storms will be after 8PM through the early morning hours on Tuesday…have a way of getting severe weather alerts while you’re sleeping.  Here’s a link to download our FREE WAVY Weather App:  http://wavy.com/2014/05/17/wavy-weather-app/

Severe Threat Tonight 7PM – 2AM Tue.

 

Aside from the wind, hail, and small tornado risk….FLOODING is high risk due to the abundance of moisture & the slow progression of the front once it moves into our area.  On average, an inch of rain is possible for most of Hampton Roads. However, areas closer to I-95 could see up to 3″ .

 

TROPICAL UPDATE:

The tropics are ramping up. There’s a disturbance known as “Potential Tropical Cyclone #2″…which is basically Invest 92L that’s east of the Lesser Antilles.  This one has a likely chance to develop as it moves towards the Caribbean, but it has advisories being issued on it because of the Tropical Storm force impacts it’ll have on the Lesser Antilles (although it’s not yet a tropical cyclone). So, tropical storm warnings are in effect for The Windward Islands. Hurricane Hunters will investigate it later today  to see if it has a closed circulation…if so, it’ll get a name.

Atlantic Disturbance – East of the Lesser Antilles

 

Invest 93L (near the Yucatan Peninsula) will also be investigated by Hurricane Hunters later today. If they find a closed center of circulation, then they’ll upgrade this disturbance to a tropical or subtropical cyclone.  Regardless, it’ll move into the Gulf over the next day or so…and it has the potential to bring an abundance of rain to the Gulf Coast. The next name on the list is Bret…then Cindy.

Gulf Disturbance

 

Get the latest on the Severe Risk & Tropics with Chief Meteorologist Don Slater tonight starting at 4PM.

Meteorologist Deitra Tate

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