That’s right… More rain is in the forecast. In fact we are in for about 3 straight days of wet weather. We did just have 2 nice days in a row, but it has come to an abrupt end. Last night we had scattered showers move through the area. It was heavy in a few places as it dropped to the southeast.
This was as a weak area of low pressure scooted along a stationary front near our region. The low is now offshore, but the front lies just to our southwest.
There is some very warm/hot weather to our south and west. Highs are aiming for the 90s over parts of South Carolina. Meanwhile we are on the cool side of the front. So we’ll have an onshore breeze out of the east. It will run at 5-15mph with gusts to 20mph. High temps will be in the upper 60s. Between the clash of the airmasses and the jetstream passing directly overhead we’ll have a high chance for rain today. I’ve upped it o 80%. Rain will increase by midday.
We’ll see more rain this afternoon into the evening. It could be heavy at times.
Inland locations may warm up a bit. Especially closer to the stationary front. So there will be more instability inland and south today. Nerd alert:… there will probably also be some surface convergence out there. So thunderstorms are more likely inland. With the onshore breeze our temps should stay down. Again, high temps will be only in the upper 60s. There could be a few 70s west. I really think that we will be more stable along the coast with the onshore winds. There is a risk for severe weather later today. It is lower north and east and higher inland and south. Notice the area of general thunderstorms (lightest green color below) covers the Eastern Shore, most of Hampton Roads, and the northern Outer Banks.
The slight risk area (level 2 out of 5) covers Emporia to Bertie county to Perquimans county. This risk goes from the late afternoon through tonight. Our Future Trak computer model actually brings in some heavy rain and storms overnight. Especially in the slight risk area.
Rain showers will continue through tomorrow morning, but the rain will probably drop out by the mid-morning. There may be a long break in the rain tomorrow. It could last from the mid morning through the mid afternoon. Clouds are still likely, but the rain chances are not low for a while. Rain is expected to pick up again in the late afternoon into the evening.
Then rain is likely again Friday night into Saturday morning. There has been a change to Saturday. An area of low pressure IS still expected to move through the region, but it may be a little faster. So rain is still likely in the morning, but showers may be a lot more scattered during the afternoon. Highs will be near 70.
The low will move off to the northeast on Sunday. It will become a nor’easter for the northeast states, but it should be far enough away that we’ll have dry weather here. I’m still optimistic for Mother’s Day. I’m calling for partly cloudy skies and highs in the mid 70s. We’ll stay pretty warm next week with highs in the mid-upper 70s. We may get back to some 80s on a day or two. We’ll be dry through the first half of the week.
Now let’s talk rain totals. Last night we picked up about one to two tenths of an inch. Over the next 24 hours we could see about an inch. Then another 1-2 inches are possible Friday into Saturday. The bottom line…We could see 1-3 inches between now and Saturday.
This will be spread out through time. So we probably won’t have widespread flooding. However, localized flooding is easily possible.
I’ve said it before. Some people think “Oh you must love all this exciting weather!”. The answer is…I love weather, but it has been very active for a long time. I’m ready for some long stretches of dry weather. I looked up some information on the weather blogs yesterday about last year’s tropical systems. I ended up perusing through a ton of weather blogs about storms and flooding and tropical systems and snow. Feel free to scroll through time to check it out yourself. You’ll be surprised at how much active weather we’ve covered. Anyway, that wasn’t so much a rant. It was more of an explainer.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler