Things are heating up over Hampton Roads, and to some degree over the tropics. Temperatures heated up yesterday well into the 80s. I was outside doing some yard work in the late morning. It didn’t take long to (gross alert) start sweating. It felt like a mid-Summer day. It didn’t help that there wasn’t much of a breeze. Today the breeze will be stronger, but the temperatures will be hotter.
High pressure lies offshore to our southeast. The surface winds will be out of the southwest at 10-15mph with gusts up to 25mph.
That breeze will do 2 things. First, it will help how we feel with the higher heat and humidity this afternoon. Second, it will push the heat to the coast. The exception will be the Eastern Shore which will have the breeze off of the Bay. By the way, bay temperatures aren’t as cool as they were a couple of weeks ago. They have risen into the mid 60s. Anyway, skies will be partly sunny today. There may be an isolated shower or storm during the afternoon, but the better chance for rain will come around by the evening.
A cold front will move into the region tonight. It will keep the chance for rain going through the overnight (50%). Then some scattered showers will linger on and off tomorrow as the front stalls to our south. I put the chance for rain tomorrow at 40%. I thought the timing of the showers would start to come together by today, but the models still disagree. Some have an area of showers in the morning and the afternoon. Other models have most of the showers in the afternoon. Future Trak follows the latter:
I think there will be a few showers in the morning with the better chance in the afternoon. As the front stalls out to our south a sizable area of low pressure will move along the front from the west. This will happen Saturday into Sunday. the effect will be a big area of rain entering the region. Showers will be on and off through most of Sunday. I have the chance for rain at 70%. The latest models have slowed down the motion that low. They have it slowly moving north Sunday into Monday. So the rain chances have been stretched out into Monday. I now have a 70% chance for that day as well. The breeze will increase out of the northeast Sunday into Monday. I wouldn’t say that this will be a Nor’easter because the low will be broad but weak. However, the persistent northeast breeze might create some nuisance or minor tidal flooding. The same breeze will definitely keep the temps down. Highs will only be in the 60s Saturday through Monday. Some models even keep the temps in the 50s on Sunday, but I think we’ll warm a little more than that. Next week we will have some big time warming. We’ll be in the 80s probably from Wednesday into next weekend. Some models are already hinting at 90s. We’ll see. It will definitely be a warmer/hotter pattern.
The rain could really add up between Saturday and Monday. We could see a couple of inches through that time. Here is the rain forecast (through Wednesday) from the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA):
The rain should be spread out through time. So flooding isn’t likely. However, there could be some if it gets heavy for a few hours. Stay tuned!
Ok so…the tropics. I haven’t forgot about it. Yesterday I talked about a subtropical depression over the central Atlantic. By yesterday evening it became a tropical storm. It is over a thousand miles away from us, and it won’t really go anywhere. This is tropical storm Arlene, and here is the forecast:
Notice the forecast is only about 10 ft long. Of course I’m exaggerating, but this will definitely be short-lived. It is basically getting absorbed into a bigger/non-tropical low. So Arlene will probably be gone by later today. It is rare for a tropical system to form in April. However, this was almost more of a technicality than an actual big storm. Still…it will be marked on the list for hurricane season. So it is worth mentioning.
If you are heading to the local beaches today, then enjoy. The rip current risk is low. The waves look like they are running about 2-3 feet along the Outer Banks with about 1-2 footers along Virginia Beach.
Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler