Blog: Tricky Wednesday Forecast

Regional Weather Map

I knew that today’s forecast would be a little tricky.  It was…but at least nature telegraphed its punches to a degree.  Here’s the setup: Yesterday the models did show a few showers in the region for today.  They appeared isolated and the chances were low.  As I got in to work I noticed that there was a large batch of showers off to our west.

Early Satellite/Radar

So I upped the rain chances for this morning from isolated to scattered.  High pressure is departing and is moving offshore.  We still have easterly winds at the surface.  This is a cool/moist flow.  Meanwhile the upper level winds are from the west.  This is pushing warmer/more humid air in at the upper levels.

Regional Weather Map

It’s not a huge clash of of the airmasses, but it is more of a rowdy disagreement.   This created an overunning pattern.  Models can have a tough time picking up on the rain in this scenario.  Especially if the saturated layer is thin.  Either way the result is wet.  So the rain became pretty widespread by 8am.

Rain At 8am

The showers won’t last all day.  They will mostly move out by the afternoon.  This will be as we warm up.  So the overunning won’t be as pronounced.  There may be some isolated showers, they they will definitely be more limited.  However, clouds will hang tough through the afternoon.  Temps will rise up into the upper 60s with a few 70s inland.  Winds will be out of the east/southeast at 8-12mph.

Tomorrow we’ll have more sunshine.  There may be an isolated shower late in the day, but the chance is low.  Today’s setup shouldn’t happen again.  Winds will be southwesterly.  So we’ll warm up to near 80.  We’ll warm to the low 80s on Friday.  Skies will be partly cloudy until late.  We’ll have some scattered showers and storms late in the day as a cold front moves into the region.  This front looks like it will stall out over the area on Saturday. So I’ve had to increase the rain chances.  For now I have it at 40%. Highs will be in the 60s.  A big area of low pressure will move into the region on Sunday.  This will increase the rain chances dramatically.  (70% or higher).  This system will steadily move east into Monday.  So we’ll have rain through Monday morning.  There will be a few thunderstorms as well.  We’ll finally dry out late Monday into Tuesday, but that’s not a guarantee.  The low could re-form offshore and move north.  Either way we will be in for a wet period for a while.

There has been recent news out of India.  Apparently, they have already had a sizable heat wave over parts of the country.  While it’s common to have heat waves from April through June, this heat wave is early.  Here is an article with more details: India Heat Wave.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

 

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