Blog: Changing Weekend Forecast!

Snow Forecast Map

There’s no doubt that colder air is on the way to the region.  However, the chance for snow has been dropping over the last 24 hours.  Let’s talk about it…

We started this morning with lots of clouds and mild temperatures.  Lows were in the 50s across the board.  This is the last of the warm air for a while.  A cold front was moving through central Virginia, and it will move in during the midday.

Regional Weather Map

Before the front gets here, we’ll briefly rise into the upper 50s to low 60s.  Winds are out of the southwest this morning at 5-15mph.  We could see a few showers ahead of the front, but the bulk of the rain will come through from the late morning through the early afternoon.

Future Trak (Noon Today)

The front will drop to our southeast during the afternoon.  Winds will pick up out of the northwest. They will run at 10-20mph with gusts up to 30mph.  The showers will taper off between 2-4pm.  There may be a stray shower lingering behind the front until 6pm, But we’ll definitely dry out beyond that.  Temps will tumble this afternoon. We’ll hit the upper 50s to low 60s a little before noon.  Then we’ll fall to the upper 40s by the afternoon.

Tonight we’ll clear out.  Low temps will drop to the low 30s.  It will be breezy.  Tomorrow we’ll see partly to mostly cloudy skies.  Highs will only be in the 40s.  We should be dry during the day, but a few showers or flurries are possible by the late evening.

The overall setup hasn’t really changed for Sunday, but the moisture forecast has.  An area of low pressure is still forecast to pass to our south along a stationary front.  It will try to push the moisture northward, but we will have lots of dry air in place at the surface.

Sunday Forecast Map

We are confident that cold air will be in place, but the models have been drying out with each run.  Here is what Future Trak is showing now for Sunday morning.

Future Trak (Sunday Morning)

On this map white is clouds, and blue is snow.  Notice the lack of blue!  The GFS model has been a thorn in my side on this one.  A couple of days ago it was showing about 6-8 inches of snow in the region.  Folks were asking…why don’t you show this on TV?  Well…take a look at what it shows today:

GFS Model Snow Forecast

That’s why!  It is barely showing any snow now, and may as well as read zero.  The European has been a steadier model over the past 2 days.  It was going much lighter.  The latest run is down to zero for snow.

European Model Snow Forecast

Even the NAM model has dried up quite a bit.  I mentioned this could happen a couple of days ago.  The low will quickly move from west to east.  Plus, it will be pretty far to our south.  So it shouldn’t have much time to push the moisture northward.  Keep in mind that overunning can sometimes allow the precip to get a little farther north than the models show.  But, the models have trended the snow well to our south.  So with all of that in mind, here is my latest snow forecast for Sunday.

Snow Forecast Map

So to me it looks like just flurries or a light snow shower in southeast Virginia.  Maybe a dusting over northeast North Carolina.  Then we may see that small area where we get an inch or more.  Keep in mind that the ground has been very warmed up recently.  Sure we’ll see some cold air tonight and tomorrow night, but it takes a while for that ground temperature to really drop.  So the bottom line is that there will probably be a lot of melting for anything that does fall.  To add to that…Air temperatures will be in the 30s Sunday morning, but they will probably be just above freezing.  Either way we’ll dry out in the afternoon as the low moves well offshore.  Highs will be in the upper 30s, but some models now show highs near 40.  There is still some wiggle room for the forecast to change.  Stay tuned for updates through the weekend.

The low will sit offshore on Monday. There will be a large trough overhead in the upper levels.  Meanwhile we’ll have some cold air in place with highs in the 40s.  Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy.  I think we could see an isolated shower late in the day.  Between Monday and Tuesday the low will strengthen offshore.  It will retrograde to the west/northwest, and it will become a nor’easter off the New jersey coast.  This will bring us lots of rain on Tuesday.  High temps will be in the 40s and possibly in the 50s. There will be some heavy snow over parts of New England.  By Tuesday night the colder air will wrap around the low and move down into our region.  This could turn into a wintry mix of rain, sleet, and snow.  Especially over the northern parts of our viewing area.  There’s a low chance that we could see some accumulations around the Middle Peninsula, Northern Neck, and Accomack county Tuesday night.  By Wednesday the low will move north. However, the upper level system will still be overhead (it will be pretty big).  So we may see a few flurries into Wednesday morning.  Then we’ll clear up a bit with highs in the 40s in the afternoon.

Oyy!  Crazy weather we’ve been having.  First the record heat in February.  Now a shot of Winter.  We’ll be chilly for most of next week, but then we should warm up some by the end of the week into next weekend.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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