Blog: Warm 3 Days, But A Wintry Weekend.

Much Colder Weekend

Even with a cool front moving through today, temps will still be well above average. This morning we had scattered showers in the region as a cool front dropped in from the northwest.

Rain This Morning



The front will continue to dive to the southeast.  Temps started in the 60s. They will briefly drop to the 50s.  Then we’ll rise back to the upper 60s this afternoon.  The showers will move out quickly this morning as the front heads south.  So we’ll clear out by the late morning.  Then we’ll have lots of sun for the rest of the day.  It will be another breezy day.  Seems like we’ve had a lot lately.  The wind will be out of the west at 10-15mph with gusts up to 25mph. Winds will settle down tonight.  With clear skies low temps will drop to the 40s.  By tomorrow we’ll have lots of sunshine in the region.  Winds will be out of the southwest at 10-20mph with higher gusts.  So temperatures will rise all the way into the mid 70s.  A stronger cold front will move through on Friday.  This will drop high temps to the low-mid 60s.  We’ll have some isolated showers.  Then it gets cold…

On Saturday we’ll see a mix of sun and clouds, but high temps will only be in the upper 40s.  The front will stall out to our south Saturday into Sunday.  During that time an area of low pressure will ride east along the front.  The track of the low and the position of the front are not being handled well by the models.  We’ll have lots of moisture in the region, and this will lead to a rain/snow mix.  Up to this point the models have been all over the place.  A couple of days ago it looked like we would see mostly rain, and the snow would stay off to our north.  Then yesterday some of the models put large bands of snow in our region with a mix at times.  Today the models have trended south.  The GFS, European, and Canadian now have most of the snow over northeast North Carolina with lesser amounts into southern Virginia.  Here is the snow totals that I have from the latest models.  The GFS is first:

GFS Snow Forecast

That was a big reduction compared to the snow totals from yesterday.  The European has had less since yesterday. Here is its latest forecast:

European Snow Forecast

This is still out of range of the NAM model, but that won’t be the case by tomorrow.  I would suspect that the models will trend back north a bit, but they will also probably dry up a bit.  This system will move fast from west to east.  So I I wonder if the low will be able to scoop up as much moisture as the current models show.  Remember though, with a 10-to-1 ratio, a tench of an inch of rain would equal one inch of snow.  Stay tuned for updates.  We’ll dry out by Sunday evening. Lows will be in the 20s.  Then we’ll see highs in the upper 40s on Monday with a sun/cloud mix.  There will be another area of low pressure in the region on Tuesday.  It will be milder with highs in the 50s.  However, cold air will wrap in on the backside Tuesday night.  Could part of the region see another wintry mix?  It’s not out of the question, but I want to get through this weekend first before I focus on that.

Where is all of this coming from? Well, it hasn’t made big headlines, but there has been some record cold up around the Arctic Circle.  It’s been impacting parts of Canada lately.  Some of this will drop south over the next week.  Unfortunately, this freezing air will likely kill a lot of plants and flowers in the eastern U.S. this weekend into next week. Not to mention the chance for snow for some states.  It will stay cold/cool for a while.  Then we’ll probably go back to warmer weather in about 12-15 days.

Meteorologist: Jeremy Wheeler

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